Voices: Joseph Lowery

Ranking every team’s chance of forcing a Game 3

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I have good news and bad news.

I’ll start with the bad news: you lost your first Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs game. Now for the good news: you’re not out of the running yet.

With the Round One Best-of-3 Series format, the door isn’t shut until you lose two games. Hope is still alive for the eight teams that face a one-game hole. The embers are growing cold, but at least they’re there. Just ask Atlanta United and New York City FC from last year – both clubs dropped their Round One openers before rallying to advance to the Conference Semifinals.

It’s all on the table. With that in mind, we’re ranking all eight teams that are down 1-0 to determine which have the best chance of extending their season.

  • Game 1: Minnesota 0, Seattle 0 (MIN win 3-2 in penalties)
  • Game 2: Monday at 10:45 pm ET (MLS Season Pass, Apple TV; FS1, FOX Deportes)

Precious little separated Seattle and Minnesota at Allianz Field in a scoreless draw that went the Loons' way in a penalty kick shootout. Really, if one team had the slightly better run of play, it was the Sounders: Danny Musovski will still be ruing his pair of unconverted chances provided by Jordan Morris late in the series opener.

Now with the luxury of playing back in Seattle at Lumen Field, it doesn’t take much to imagine the Sounders landing on the right side of Monday’s affair. Watch if Brian Schmetzer makes a couple of tweaks to his team that ignite a victory – a Georgi Minoungou start wouldn’t shock me, with an eye towards Seattle becoming more dynamic on the dribble against Eric Ramsay’s low block.

Maybe I can’t quit Wilfried Nancy. Maybe I can’t quite find it in myself to believe in Cincy. Either way, it would be foolish to count out the Crew from this Hell is Real series.

Despite being short on healthy, in-form bodies at both ends, Columbus largely stood tall against their rivals in Game 1. They didn’t create a ton of chances, but neither did their hosts. While Cincy found breakaways, those breakaways rarely turned into dangerous, clear-cut looks on Columbus’ goal. So, why couldn’t the Crew find themselves taking Game 2 back at their home field?

Game 1 didn’t feature a ton of fireworks, but Sunday’s rematch just might.

While they fell in PKs, Chicago did an admirable job of taking away Philadelphia's best attributes in Game 1.

By shifting back into a 3-4-3 setup and sitting deep in their own half for much of the game, Gregg Berhalter forced the Union to set up shop in sustained possession sequences rather than their quick transition attacks. Now, Philly still found breakthroughs in transition after the Fire allowed the game to become overly stretched. But the concept was there, and the execution was excellent for most of the match.

Philip Zinckernagel’s injury certainly complicates things for Chicago, but there wasn’t much between separating them and the Supporters’ Shield winners last time out. Playing at home could be just what the doctor ordered to level this series.

Charlotte struggled in Game 1 against NYCFC – their attack was stagnant for long stretches, while the defense folded at just the wrong time and allowed Alonso Martínez to score one of the sauciest goals of the season.

So, what's the hope for Dean Smith’s team in Saturday’s rematch on the road? Two words: Wilfried Zaha.

Zaha is no stranger to a big game, and he's back after serving a red-card suspension. Even more crucially, he’s Charlotte's most dangerous chance-creator with No. 10 Pep Biel out injured. They desperately need Zaha to run the show at Yankee Stadium. If he does, they could be right back in this series.

Despite finding a leveler just past the hour mark, Austin couldn’t quite get the job done in their series opener at LAFC. Still, there were some encouraging signs from Nico Estévez’s team.

With a mixture of resolute deeper defending and heads-up play in transition defense, Austin kept LAFC’s star-studded attack relatively quiet on the evening. If they can replicate the same performance against the ball and squeeze slightly more out of the attack (especially Osman Bukari on the right wing), Austin can frustrate LAFC back in Texas and level the series.

For an LAFC team that likes to play in space, Austin were always going to be a tough matchup in Round One. We'll see that play out in Game 2.

Two things can be true:

  1. Nashville are an excellent team
  2. They’ve run into a motivated, angry Inter Miami at just the wrong time

That first point is why Nashville aren't bottom-two in these rankings. They finished the season with the fifth-best xG differential in the entire league, as per FBref. They won the US Open Cup. They’ve got regular season and knockout competition bonafides, plus an attack that’s chomping at the bit after a quiet Game 1.

That second point is why Nashville aren't higher up these rankings. With Miami out to make absolutely sure last year's shocking Round One exit doesn’t repeat itself, Nashville won’t have an easy time brushing past them to force a Game 3. I’m worried about B.J. Callaghan’s team.

Kristoffer Velde continues to look like a sharp addition after signing as a Designated Player during the summer transfer window. His goal at San Diego in Game 1 was a reminder of how skillful he can be when isolated 1-v-1 against an opposing defender. But even with Velde’s outing, the Timbers were soundly outplayed. San Diego had them on the ropes within the first 30 minutes.

Now down their starting left back after Jimer Fory was red-carded, things will get even tougher for a Portland defense that already struggled to contain a record-setting expansion team. It’s hard to see a way back for the Timbers.

No series opener was more one-sided than FC Dallas’ 3-0 loss at Vancouver. The ‘Caps took 22 shots. Dallas registered none. That tells the story all on its own.

Eric Quill’s shift to an extremely low 5-4-1 block following Lucho Acosta’s midseason transfer helped push Dallas into the playoffs. While they found plenty of defensive success to finish the regular season, solidity against the ball was nowhere to be found over the weekend. Vancouver carved right through Quill’s deep block (and dusted their sporadic high press, for good measure), forced Dallas into a pair of halftime subs, and still bagged two goals in the second half.

Dallas looked outmatched in just about every way. Playing in Frisco won’t be enough to see them take down Thomas Müller and the Whitecaps.