With the international break at hand, we figured we’d take a look at each remaining playoff team and gauge their hopes of winning an MLS Cup. We’ll go from lowest seed to highest seed, starting with the East. Yesterday, LA Galaxy. Today, LAFC.
The path behind
LAFC have been doing LAFC things. Do you really need any more than that? They’ve made back-to-back MLS Cups, they have more points than any other team over the past three seasons, and they’ve finished first in the West in two of the past three seasons. They finished first in American Soccer Analysis’ expected points metric and first in ASA’s goals added metric. They’re really, really good at this.
They have stumbled at times this year, though. They came up short in the Leagues Cup Final against Columbus. They played an awful game in Round One against Vancouver and got blasted 3-0. They’re excellent, but they’re not invincible. That being said…
The path ahead
MLS Cup is LAFC’s trophy to win. They’ll face Seattle this weekend in the Conference Semifinals. They’re unbeaten against the Sounders in their last 10 meetings. They’ve won eight of those. That includes the two times they’ve knocked Seattle out of tournaments this year.
After that, they’ll either get an all-time setting for El Tráfico or Minnesota United. The Galaxy will be as tough a challenge as it gets, and that game is pretty much a toss-up. But they’ll be hosting that one, and they’ll be hosting MLS Cup if they make it. And if they make it… well, with all due respect to the teams in the East, they’d be heavy, heavy favorites at home.
Can they do it?
Yes. It’s hard to expect anything different at this point.
Why won’t they do it?
There is a formula to beating this team. It’s really, really difficult to execute, but it is possible. Vancouver gave a great example of that. An early goal against LAFC and another shortly after forced LAFC to try and use the ball and chase the game. That’s a great formula against any team, but LAFC are at their weakest chasing the game. They’re such an effective transition and counter-attacking team, but they haven’t proven they can consistently come out of their shell and find ways to create chances if they’re forced to break an opponent down.
Part of that issue right now is the fact Olivier Giroud has been a total bust. Quick moment to pat ourselves on the back here: We worried about Giroud’s fit with this team before he arrived. It’s honestly been worse than we thought it could be. He’s still yet to score in MLS, and Steve Cherundolo correctly opted to start Mateusz Bogusz in his place in Game 3 against Vancouver.
What if they opt to start Giroud again, and the moment isn’t right? What if they struggle to get anything going in attack in part because Giroud feels so disconnected from what LAFC try to do? What if the game state gets flipped, and their weaknesses get exposed?
That’s not to say it will happen, it’s just to say it could happen if the wrong buttons are pushed and LAFC aren’t on their game. It’s worst-case scenario stuff. But a worst-case scenario is what it’s probably going to take.
Just imagine for a moment that Seattle go up early. At that point, the best defense in the league can take an even more conservative posture. There’s precedent for a Seattle side putting in the performance of the season against a heavily favored LAFC team. Maybe that’s all it will take to ruin LAFC’s year.
What will decide whether or not they do it?
- Are they going to start Bogusz as the nine?
- Can Giroud come up big in whatever situation he’s utilized in?
- Are they going to avoid negative game states?
- Will the chaos of El Tráfico tilt toward the Galaxy? Analysis is all well and good, but there are stronger forces at play in that game. Anything could happen.
- Will Seattle be so powered by spite that they put in their best shift of the season just to stop hearing about their losing streak to LAFC?
- Are they going to stick with three midfielders? That setup gave them added stability in the second half of Game 3 against Vancouver. Is that a key to success the rest of the way?
- Joe Lowery gave one stat that will decide the Conference Semifinals for each team.
- Before the rivalry kicks off again this weekend, take a look at the most memorable Hudson River Derby moments.
- Jonathan Sigal looked at one big question MLS teams must address for 2025.
Good luck out there. Just put it back in place and keep going.
