Chaos, thy name is the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs.
First, the New York Red Bulls channeled Wilfried Nancy’s “Impossible is an opinion” line – guess that one can both ways, huh? – then Atlanta United issued a hearty “FEA” to all the Bracket Challenges out there. The theme of the postseason so far, at least in the Eastern Conference, is historic upsets.
Are you naïve enough to think this weekend’s Conference Semifinals will be any different?!?
Best to prepare yourself emotionally for all outcomes … all the way through MLS Cup on Dec. 7, which is why I’m here to present the case for why all eight remaining clubs can win the whole thing (but also most certainly won’t). Here we go, in order of seeding…
- Western Conference Semifinal: Nov. 23 vs. Seattle Sounders FC (10:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
Will win MLS Cup because…
Steve Cherundolo’s team knows exactly who they are in knockout games; they’ve got more talent, back to front, than any team remaining, and every game through Cup is at home.
It’s not a complicated formula. Keep your lines organized and tight. Get Denis Bouanga and Mateusz Bogusz on the ball behind the opponent’s backline. Do that, plus win the set-piece battle, and the odds LAFC will win three straight are very, very high.
Just kidding, LAFC will fall short because…
They cede too much control of the game in midfield.
The only thing that kept the Whitecaps from summiting the Black & Gold mountaintop was finishing variability. On aggregate – and on the eye test – the ‘Caps were the better team over three games in Round One.
- Western Conference Semifinal: Nov. 24 vs. Minnesota United FC (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass; FS1, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS)
Will win MLS Cup because…
The Galaxy’s attack is in a different universe than the rest of the field, and Riqui Puig is in [sweeps perfectly coifed hair to one side and grins with orthodontist-straight, pearly-white teeth] scintillating form.
Greg Vanney’s group can jump to a multi-goal, welp-this-is-over-before-it-really-started lead in the blink of an eye and won’t have to leave LA the rest of the playoffs, even if LAFC are the opponent in the Western Conference Final.
Just kidding, LA will fall short because…
They expose themselves in transition, haven’t been able to consistently defend set pieces all year, and have the odd “how on earth did that happen?!?” mistake in them.
It really is that simple.
- Western Conference Semifinal: Nov. 23 at LAFC (10:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
Will win MLS Cup because…
Jordan Morris goes on a mini heater, and Pedro de la Vega (OK, let’s be honest, Albert Rusnák) plays his best ball when the lights are brightest.
I don’t have any doubts about the Sounders’ ability to deny opponents attacking oxygen. The spine is elite, with a good mix of veterans (Stefan Frei, Yeimar, Cristian Roldan, João Paulo) and young legs (Jackson Ragen, Obed Vargas). They will keep games tight.
But to be on the right side of the margins in the playoffs, your best attacking players have to be … well, your best attacking players. If Seattle’s are, they can win it all.
Just kidding, Seattle will fall short because…
Their best attacking players don’t show up with big plays that decide playoff games, with all due respect to Paul Rothrock.
Also, Seattle might just be cursed against LAFC (zero wins in their last 10 meetings)!
- Western Conference Semifinal: Nov. 24 at LA Galaxy (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass; FS1, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS)
Will win MLS Cup because…
The Loons don’t give up anything easy – two goals allowed in their last seven games – and their attacking group (they’ve got game-breaking talent in the XI and off the bench) can be downright scary.
Eric Ramsay isn’t likely to surprise us too much in LA this weekend. I’d expect a 5-4-1 defensive shape that tries to force the Galaxy (and Puig) into wide areas, somewhere in the range of 35-40 percent possession, a whole lot of counterattacking through Robin Lod, Joaquín Pereyra, Kelvin Yeboah and whoever else can join them (Bongi Hlongwane and Joseph Rosales, in particular) and a real focus on set pieces.
That’s a pretty darn good formula for winning road games, which is what Minnesota must do to win Cup.
Just kidding, Minnesota will fall short because…
The odds of winning two straight road games against the Galaxy and LAFC/Seattle are very, very low, no matter how good the formula may be.
- Eastern Conference Semifinal: Nov. 24 vs. Atlanta United (3:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
Will win MLS Cup because…
The seas parted in the Eastern Conference, leaving them an “easy” path to MLS Cup, where Oscar Pareja’s team won’t be afraid to go on the road (most likely) and play the underdog.
Home-field advantage. The deepest, most talented, and most productive attack remaining – get the ball to Martín Ojeda against a backpedaling defense – on their side of the bracket. A central midfield duo that makes everything unduly difficult for opponents. A streaky goalkeeper who seems to be white hot right now.
Good formula, plus perhaps a little fate, too? Could this finally be Oscar Pareja’s year?
Just kidding, Orlando will fall short because…
The seas parted for them, and Pareja’s teams seem to play a little tight in the playoffs, especially when asked to carry the game. Atlanta United aren’t going to want the ball. Neither will New York City or the Red Bulls.
- Eastern Conference Semifinal: Nov. 23 vs. New York Red Bulls (5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
Will win MLS Cup because…
When they’re hot, they’re HOT. Eleven of NYCFC's victories came in winning streaks of three games (twice) and five games. Apart from that, it was longggggg deserts of form.
Were they HOT against Cincinnati in Round One? Frankly, no. But a Red Bulls beatdown sparked a three-game winning streak to end the season, so why can’t that happen again?
Just kidding, New York City will fall short because…
When they’re cold, they’re COLD. Oh, and they’re a pretty darn poor road team. MLS Cup will not happen in the Big Apple.
- Eastern Conference Semifinal: Nov. 23 at New York City FC (5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
Will win MLS Cup because…
Emil Forsberg is the best player in the playoffs.
I want to write more than that … to expound on the collective effort that disrupted Columbus or Carlos Coronel’s match-saving form right when New York most needed it ... but it just ain’t happening without Forsberg being the fulcrum around which every attack lives or dies.
Just kidding, Red Bulls will fall short because…
That’s a lot to ask of Emil Forsberg. And, they’re the Red Bulls. Lightning usually strikes this club to extinguish their hopes at the most painful possible time in the most painful possible way.
- Eastern Conference Semifinal: Nov. 24 at Orlando City SC (3:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)
Will win MLS Cup because…
FEA. Brad Guzan's “Fountain of Youth” form. Dax McCarty in full Jordan Belfort “I’m not leaving!” glory. Saba time stays on schedule. Pedro Amador has an unlimited supply of goal-seeking assist missiles. Guys like Jamal Thiaré and Bartosz Slisz keep doing things they haven’t done before.
More seriously – though I was dead serious about all that – the Five Stripes are better at playing into the space opponents leave than the space Atlanta decide to defend. It worked against Miami (and Montréal, sorta), but it’s been a crap shoot all year.
Just kidding, Atlanta will fall short because…
The Inter Miami matchup, as crazy as it sounds, was a good one for them. And did I mention it’s been a crap shoot all year?!? They’re bound to crap out. Right? RIGHT?!?!
