Our season preview content rolls on! This week I’m going team by team and trying to pick out the guy who’s poised to take on a bigger role, up his production and become more than just an under-the-radar fan favorite or a kid with potential. That’s right, folks, it’s time to talk breakout players.
What qualifies as a “breakout player,” you ask? Well, 1) you know when you see it and 2) this interview is over! No more questions!
West today, East tomorrow. In we go:
Five years ago Nelson was considered a can’t-miss talent pushing his way through Toronto FC’s academy and into the first team. Along the way, though, he got derailed for various reasons. One of the big ones is TFC’s relative dysfunction this decade, but an even bigger reason is Nelson is something of a ‘tweener: he’s never going to be the dynamic 1v1 winger some thought, he’s never going to have the playmaker’s vision others thought, and he’s not a dynamic goalscorer.
My hunch is his best role – and we saw him doing this for a hot minute under Bob Bradley – is as something of a Latif Blessing-style pressing No. 10. His field coverage has always been a strength, and while he's not a natural playmaker, he’s a functional passer who can win the ball, play quickly forward to, say, Ryan Gauld (or backward to Pedro Vite), and then find space off-ball to occupy defenders and create attacking options.
After a year overseas, he’s back in MLS with a Vancouver side that really need him to be something. My best bet is he’ll be that.
Confidence level: Low. We’re talking a very specific set of circumstances for him to thrive.
We’re probably a year or two too early on Joyner, who’s just 18. But he was awesome last year in MLS NEXT Pro with 16g/4a in 1,850 minutes, and his off-ball movement is dangerous in a way that has become essential for teams that are converting to a back three with flying wingbacks (which St. Louis are under new head coach Olof Mellberg).
He will almost certainly be behind Conrad Wallem on the left, and hasn’t played much on the right throughout his very young career. But he’s going to get on the field for at least a little bit and get into dangerous spots, and players who can do that add value. Players who add value then get more playing time.
Confidence level: Low. I think the likeliest outcome is that only St. Louis fans and absolute sickos (like me and the poor guys editing this) will know much about Joyner 12 months from now, but I’m already looking forward to his real breakout year in 2026.
Ok, so Atencio has already broken out as a useful MLS defensive midfielder. He’s played real minutes in big games against the biggest teams in the region, has gotten a USMNT cap, and has gotten himself paid. And he’s 23 – not a kid anymore.
But we haven’t seen much of Atencio at what I think will ultimately be his best position: center back, specifically in a back three. He’s got the physicality for it, and on the ball he’s got the passing range (with either foot!) to be an asset for a team that wants to have the ball about 60 percent of the time.
We’ll still see some of Atencio in central midfield this year (sometimes alongside one of last year’s breakout Sounders, Obed Vargas), but my guess is by the end of the season, we’ll be talking a lot more about him as a center back.
Confidence level: Pretty high, given what we’ve seen thus far in preseason and how committed the Sounders are to developing their academy talent.
Benji Kikanovic’s unfortunate injury should open up a ton of playing time for Verhoeven, an 18-year-old academy product who finally broke into the first team for a half-dozen games at the end of last season.
Verhoeven is not flashy. But both in NEXT Pro and with the various USYNTs he’s played for, as well as in that six-game MLS cameo last season, he’s played hard and been mistake-free. That’s generally what Bruce Arena has asked of his fullbacks over the years, and it’s a role that would fit the kid well.
Confidence level: Medium. Verhoeven has the tactical tools, but he might not be there yet physically. Still, the door is open now. I hope he walks through it.
I really liked Alvarado, a product of the LA Galaxy academy, back in the first part of this decade with the US U-20s. He looked, to me, like a rugged and pretty skilled two-way central midfielder who wasn’t afraid of doing the dirty work, but still had the engine to get forward and support the attack.
Alvarado then spent the past three years bouncing around Portugal in teams that seemed determined to use him anywhere but central midfield.
Now 21, the kid’s looking for a fresh start with a team that’s told any and everyone that player development – specifically, developing players from Southern California – is a core tenet of who they are. And I love a good second chance story! Maybe, just as new teammate Luca de la Torre had to leave his club (Fulham) to find playing time elsewhere (Heracles Almelo) in his early 20s, Alvarado’s on that same path.
Confidence level: Low. “Deep reserve” seems likelier than any sort of significant role.
Henry is on a similar path to Alvarado, as he declined to sign with a domestic side to try and break through in Europe as a teenager.
That didn’t work out and now, just a couple months from turning 21, he’s found himself in Utah on loan for at least the year. And the whispers I’ve heard indicate that he’s impressed in preseason, and could be in line for a starting job along that RSL back line.
Will it be in a back three or a back four? That’s a big question right now, but what isn’t is whether Henry’s in line for serious minutes. Spoiler alert: he is.
Confidence level: High. Pablo Mastroeni’s done excellent work developing players other teams have cast off, and nobody’s ever doubted Henry’s natural talent. Should be a great fit.
The folks in Portland love Surman, a full New Zealand international who’ll be on the field in next summer’s World Cup. He arrived in the middle of last year and was slowly integrated into the team. He didn’t make an appearance until Decision Day, when he started and went 90 minutes in the Timbers’ 1-1 draw vs. the Sounders.
Then he grabbed some bench in the Wild Card game against Vancouver and had a front-row seat for his side’s 5-0 humiliation. Beware of correlation vs. causation and all of that, but, y’know. 5-0.
I’m not sure he’s in line to start from first kick this year, but it’s hard to imagine bringing back the exact same group that shipped 56 regular-season goals last year, and then lost that nickel at home in the playoffs. Changes will eventually be made.
Confidence level: High.
Diaz had a couple of bad moments to start his tenure with the Loons when he arrived mid-season, and a couple of bad moments at the end of his debut year as the Galaxy absolutely stuffed them into a grave in the Western Conference Semifinals.
In between, though, we saw a rangy center back who wasn’t afraid to pick a pass and was positively eager to get on the ball and break opposing pressure by dribbling past the front line.
With other breakout candidates thus far I’ve mostly written about young players claiming bigger roles and maaaaaybe becoming starters. Diaz is already a starter; what I’m talking about here, as he hits his prime, is him becoming the type of press-breaking center back Joe Lowery writes poetry about in Backheeled.
Confidence level: Medium. He’s a nailed-on starter and I think he’ll be very good, but I’m not quite sure he’ll reach Steven Moreira or Robin Jansson-level.
I’ve written this elsewhere a million times this offseason: before Garcés got into the lineup with four games left in the regular season, the Galaxy were in the bottom third of the league in npxG conceded per 90, and their actual goals conceded just about matched that.
Once he made it into the XI, the Galaxy’s numbers (actual and underlying) dropped by about half a goal per game, which was a top-five mark. Garcés – with his ability to put out fires in behind – was the biggest reason why. In was on particularly stark display in the Western Conference Final, during which he repeatedly snuffed out Jordan Morris in the open field. Not a lot of CBs in the league could do that.
Garcés has a chance to be in the Best XI discussion. Quite a come-up for a kid who took months to get onto the field in the first place.
Confidence level: Medium. The Galaxy will still be really good, but I think the game model, with Riqui Puig injured, will have changed to the point that Garcés’ strengths aren’t highlighted nearly so much, and his primary weakness (he’s not great at reading crosses) could stick out a bit.
Mateusz Bogusz got sold, Kike Olivera is perhaps next out the door, and Antoine Griezmann isn't coming until summer? Seems like the young Venezuelan – who had 5g/3a in just 626 minutes across all competitions last year – is in line to get a lot of run.
If Martínez does, I don’t think it’s wild to predict he’ll finish the year atop the 22 Under 22 rankings and on the shopping lists of some of the bigger clubs in top-five leagues. An outgoing fee in the realm of what RSL got for Andrés Gómez last year seems very, very manageable.
Confidence level: Extremely high, even if they keep Olivera (who’s also excellent).
I’d be like 80% higher on Sporting entering this season if they had the technology to clone Jake Davis and start one of the clones at right back, with the other lining up in central midfield as the second coming of box-to-box legend Roger Espinoza.
I really like him at right back, and based upon Sporting’s current depth chart and rumored upcoming signings, I think there’s a better chance that’s his job at the beginning of the year.
But he is, from where I sit, irreplaceable in central midfield in almost the exact same way Espinoza was for more than a decade. I loved watching him there once he was moved into that spot mid-season.
He’s got USMNT potential in either position.
Confidence level: Very high, as just like Roger he’s the type of player home fans will love while everyone else hates.
If it’s not McGlynn the Dynamo are in some trouble! They brought him in explicitly to be the replacement for Héctor Herrera, who spent the past two years being among the league leaders in touches per 90, passes per 90, progressive passes and everything else you could want out of a midfield orchestrator.
McGlynn’s got a ton of that to his game. Even while playing in a system that was mostly allergic to possession with Philly, he posted a lot of green:
Eighty-ninth percentile in pass attempts per 90, 98th percentile in progressive passes, 86th percentile in progressive carries? That’s exactly what the Dynamo paid for, and exactly what they need.
The question is whether he can do the defensive work required of the spot. It’s partially a question of athleticism – McGlynn doesn’t have much – but at times it’s also been a question of will. Which is to say he’s got to show more.
Confidence level: Medium. Might need a full year to understand his two-way responsibility before it really clicks.
It’s been an offseason of misery for Dallas fans, but the one unambiguous good thing that happened is the front office pushed through a permanent deal for Delgado. The 21-year-old Ecuadorian was largely excellent last year, with elite field coverage and tenacity combined with a good touch on the ball in traffic and killer timing on his box arrivals as a No. 8.
He’s not really a playmaker, and you wouldn’t mistake him for a McGlynn-style orchestrator. But he’s a guy who adds value in every phase of play, both with and without the ball.
He’ll get his first full Ecuador cap this year, and it wouldn’t shock me if he’s the next big Dallas sale 12 months from now.
Confidence level: Very high. Everything else around him might be in flux, but Delgado’s a winner.
Honestly, it doesn’t feel like anybody on this Rapids roster is on the verge of breaking out. We know who all their guys are, how they play, and what to expect (for the most part). Do they need one of the wingers – who won’t be playing much as wingers this year, but as half-space merchants in a new 3-4-2-1 – to hit a new gear? Yes. But right now, it looks like Kévin Cabral has got the inside track on the starting job next to Djordje Mihailovic, and I can not, in good conscience, pick Kévin Cabral as a breakout player in the year of our lord 2025.
Is it stupid to pick a homegrown player directly out of college as a breakout candidate? Yes, for two reasons:
- There’s not a ton of guys who come straight out of college into meaningful minutes, and
- By definition nobody knows anything about college kids, so literally anything he does makes him a breakout player.
I don’t care, though. I’ve seen enough film to be fairly high on the kid, who was pretty close to a true No. 10 for the University of Denver, and whose older brother Cole is arguably the best player on the team.
Confidence level: Pretty low. I think Sam will play minutes, though I’m not sure at which spot and I'm definitely not willing to wager on how many.
Pereira’s a former No. 1 overall SuperDraft pick and has been a starter for four years, with more than 120 appearances for Austin. He’s also cracked Venezuela’s roster and a few months ago made his debut in Conmebol World Cup qualifying. So he’s probably got the highest profile of anybody on this list, to the point that it’s borderline irresponsible to put him here.
But I’m going with it anyway because I think he’ll have a new role as a sort of free 8 in Nico Estévez’s system, and his primary function fits his skillset.
I forget who originally posted this “Jobs of the Modern Midfielder” graphic, but here ya go:
Players like Pereira often get overlooked because they don’t do a ton of Job A or Job B. It’s all the “ball magically moves to the other side of the pitch” stuff he’s best at.
In this team, that just spent $30 million on attackers who are just attackers, that job has become indescribably important.
Confidence level: Very high. I think Pereira will get so much “most underrated player in the league” buzz that he’ll be in danger of becoming overrated by mid-season.
