The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw is set for 12 pm ET on Friday, Dec. 5. We'll soon learn the United States' Group D opponents.
Which, of course, means: It’s just an honor to be here, we’ll worry about ourselves and not the opponents, it doesn’t matter who we draw, we will take on anyone anytime, etc., etc., etc.
Good, now that we’ve got that out of the way, we can be honest about the fact that some of the potential groups are far more dangerous to the USMNT’s hopes of advancing than others.
Even with an expanded field – we’re at 48 teams now instead of 32 – doomsday and not quite so doomsday scenarios are lurking.
Before we lay those out, a few ground rules. The 48 teams are divided into four pots. Groups are made up of one team from each pot. Teams from the same confederation can’t be grouped together. That is, except for UEFA (Europe). Only up to two teams from that confederation can be in the same group.
Oh, and we’re still waiting to find out the final six teams. They’ll figure that out in March. Isn’t this fun?
Anyway, as a host country, the US are in Pot 1, which means they at least get to avoid most of the Big Bads at the start. Here’s how each pot could shake out.
- USA (14th in FIFA Rankings)
- Croatia (10th)
- Norway (29th)
- Ghana (72nd)
You may not recognize every name on Croatia’s team sheet, but you should be well aware by now that the 2018 World Cup runners-up and the 2022 third-place finishers are a force on the global stage. They might end up being the oldest contender in the field – Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic are still. here. – but that didn’t stop them from waltzing through their (admittedly cupcake-filled) European qualifying run with an undefeated record and a +22 goal differential.
You could obviously make arguments that other teams in Pot 2 pose as much of a threat, but none of them have Croatia’s history of success in the last two tournaments.
You also may not recognize every name on Norway’s team sheet. However, counterpoint: Erling Haaland, Erling Haaland, Erling Haaland, Erling Haaland, Erling Haaland.
Handling perhaps the best striker in the world and his beyond-elite physical skillset is going to be a nightmare for even the best teams in the tournament. Add in how Arsenal playmaker Martin Ødegaard will be hanging out just behind him and creating goal-scoring opportunities, and dealing with Norway will be a miserable experience, regardless of whether you make it out unscathed.
Then there’s the USMNT’s old friend, Ghana. It feels like we’ve seen this matchup in the World Cup roughly 10 times now, but it’s somehow only three. In 2006, Ghana won 2-1 and sent the United States out of the group stage. In 2010, Ghana won 2-1 and eliminated the United States in the Round of 16 in extra time. And, in 2014, the USMNT finally flipped the script with a late 2-1 win in the group stage. Basically, every time these two get together, someone wins 2-1 and everyone has an anxiety attack. So… sounds fun, right?
Alright, before we get out of this negative headspace, we should point out that Ghana might get replaced in the doomsday scenario by one of the unknown UEFA teams from the upcoming playoff in March. Italy, Poland, Türkiye, Denmark and others are all waiting in the wings. Exchange Croatia for Morocco, Colombia or Switzerland, and then plug in a UEFA playoff winner as the second UEFA team, and maybe then you truly have a group of doom.
Other options
- USA (14th), Colombia (13th), Ivory Coast (42nd), Winner of UEFA Playoff D
- USA (14th), Switzerland (17th), Algeria (35th), Winner of UEFA Playoff A
- USA (14th)
- Iran (20th)
- South Africa (61st)
- New Zealand (86th)
See. Don’t you feel better now? Not every outcome is a perilous gauntlet.
What’s that? You’re still incredibly stressed and insistent upon the universe conspiring to force the USMNT to lose every single match? Well, that’s just normal. Probably.
Either way, this is a solid example of how Friday could work out for the better. It's probably harsh to consider Iran, a consistent winner in AFC (Asia), the best draw out of Pot 2. But the thing about Pot 2 is that it’s still full of really good teams. Go with Australia here if it makes you feel even better.
From there, the United States would be viewed as heavy favorites against a number of teams. South Africa are at the bottom of most lists in Pot 3, so we’ll stick with them.
Then, in Pot 4, avoiding Ghana or any of the UEFA wheel of misfortune spots seems ideal. Facing a New Zealand side ranked 86th in the world seems the most palatable.
Other options
- USA (14th), Australia (26th), Paraguay (39th), Cape Verde (68th)
- USA (14th), Austria (24th), Tunisia (40th), Jordan (66th)
- USA (14th)
- South Korea (22nd)
- Paraguay (39th)
- New Zealand (86th)
The rest of the potential groups exist in an in-between space. Odds are the USMNT get a totally normal group that they’ll be expected to advance from, but will still pose its own unique challenges.
But only one of those normal groups gives us the most MLS experience possible. Now, obviously, without two Concacaf teams in a group, no one will be overwhelmed by the MLS-ness of it all.
However, South Korea will feature LAFC’s Son Heung-Min and Paraguay may include Atlanta's Miguel Almirón, Vancouver’s Andrés Cubas (if he doesn’t run his passport through the wash again) and RSL’s Braian Ojeda. If New Zealand bring along Minnesota's Michael Boxall and Portland’s Finn Surman, the USMNT could be up against a very MLS back line.
If that happens, the odds of this being the weirdest group in the tournament are as good as any. And maybe that’s all anyone truly wants out of a World Cup draw.
…y’all…y’all still want the super easy group, don’t you?
