And then there were four.
The Conference Championships are set. One of Atlanta United, New York Red Bulls, Sporting Kansas City or Portland Timbers will lift MLS Cup on December 8. It will be played at either Red Bull Arena or Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Who is most likely to get there and win the Cup, though? Well, thanks to the folks at FiveThirtyEight, we have the probabilities.
In the East, not even FiveThirtyEight wants to lend a prediction for who will host MLS Cup final as the Red Bulls and Atlanta are given an equal 50/50 shot. As for the West, SKC is seen as the favorite over Portland, with a 65 percent probability to make MLS Cup.
The winner of MLS Cup is more likely to come from the East, as Atlanta (36 percent) and the Red Bulls (35 percent) nearly split evenly the label of MLS Cup favorite at this stage, as the clubs have traded for much of the season. Having to play the final on the road gives SKC (21 percent) and the Timbers (8 percent) a much lower chance.
Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight's three favorites heading into the playoffs have all progressed to the final four. Portland, however, were given just a 2 percent chance of lifting MLS Cup before the playoffs started and just a 14 percent likelihood to reach the Conference Championship, the third-worst among the 12 playoff teams.
