MLS coaches make playoff picks: Who goes all the way?

As frustrating as they may find it to be on the outside looking in, coaches who aren’t taking part in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs usually still end up watching them on television – after all, they’re fans of the game just like the rest of us.

Which got us thinking: Which teams and players are they picking? Who do they expect to step up in the big moments that pave the path to the league title? So we asked them.

Chicago Fire FC head coach Ezra Hendrickson and Seattle Sounders boss Brian Schmetzer – both of whom have hoisted this trophy over their playing or coaching careers – were kind enough to share some insights about this year’s postseason field. We also spoke with a few current and former MLS head coaches, all of whom have won major titles, who requested anonymity in order to speak frankly.

Here’s a look at the ‘22 playoffs from some actual, honest-to-goodness experts.

Audi 2022 MLS Cup Playoffs bracket

There was broad consensus on a favorite here, even if Schmetzer admitted he’s biased to want an Eastern Conference side to win the whole thing, rather than one of his Sounders’ West counterparts.

“Philadelphia Union is the most complete team, in my opinion,” said Hendrickson.

“They have been competitive for the last couple of years and have really been knocking on the door,” said one of our anonymous coaches of the DOOP squad. “They are probably in the best position to do it.”

“They're balanced,” added another on head coach Jim Curtin’s group. “Early in the year they were as good as any team in the league defensively, and the offensive part was sputtering. And then right as everybody was writing them off and telling them that their offense stunk, they started banging in goals for fun – and kept that going in a consistent way.”

Supporters’ Shield winners LAFC clearly command respect and will enjoy home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as the top overall seed. Yet their drastic swoon in late summer may have raised some doubts about a once-dominant outfit whose key protagonist hasn’t always been at his best in the postseason.

“LAFC has all the tools and if Carlos Vela is motivated, they have to be the favorites,” said Schmetzer. “But from a soccer perspective, I think Montréal, with their back line of five, I think they could cause LA some problems.”

This drew a range of responses. Many eyes will clearly be on Vela, though one coach said the rise of Chicho Arango and LAFC’s fearsome roster depth has reduced the weight on the Mexican star’s shoulders – not to mention the ace in the hole that could be Gareth Bale off the bench.

“They've got so much other firepower right now, it’s actually taken a little pressure off Vela,” he said. “He may have a little bit more time and space if others take the opponent’s focus. I think LA's coming out of the West. It's going to be very difficult, with that firepower, for them not to be in the final.”

Another picked Philly’s red-hot Dániel Gazdag. Hendrickson pointed to a couple of routinely dominant goalkeepers: Andre Blake from Philadelphia and Joe Willis from Nashville.

FC Cincinnati maestro Luciano Acosta is also a potential X factor for the debutants from Ohio.

“I want to see if Lucho Acosta can raise his level in the playoffs,” said one of our nameless contributors. “A lot will depend on his performances.”

Austin FC were once a trendy upstart MLS Cup pick, and their shuffling conclusion to the regular season has some of our panelists closely eyeing their attacking linchpin Sebastián Driussi.

“Driussi needs to get hot again if Austin’s going anywhere,” said one coach. “When they were flying, it was a team effort, but he was shouldering a lot of the points and you can see that as he’s gone a little bit dry, their results have not been as good. Hopefully he comes back into it and shows that MVP caliber that he had for a good portion of the season.”

He’s one of several elite attackers whose teams largely revolve around them, particularly out West.

“You look at \[Emanuel\] Reynoso in Minnesota,” said Schmetzer, “\[Hany\] Mukhtar in Nashville, Chicharito if he's on form with [LA Galaxy]; Austin has Driussi. There's teams in the West that seem to have those special players.”

Bearing in mind that there’s subjectivity in this terminology, CF Montréal seem to best fit the bill here. The Quebec club have earned big respect for their quality and consistency in 2022.

“Montréal played us off the park here in Seattle [on June 29],” said Schmetzer. “I think the scoreline was 2-1 but they were better than us in all phases of the game. So I think that they can come out of the East and do some damage."

Coach of the Year finalist Wilfried Nancy has CFM flying, with just one league loss since mid-July, and their unique brand of buildup play, typically out of a 3-4-2-1 shape, is seen as a difficult nut for others to crack.

“Nancy, he’s done a hell of a job. They seem well coached, they're a very interesting team to watch, they're a very difficult team to play against,” said one of our panelists. “They have this many points for a reason. Constantly, other teams have thrown a bunch of different tactics at them this year, and not many have been that effective. I don't think there's any real recipes to say OK, here's how you go about Montréal.”

Noted another: “I don’t know if Montréal is an underdog, necessarily. They might not be looked at that way, but they have never been to MLS Cup. I think they could do that this year. They have been playing very well for the last several weeks.”

Montréal was again a common theme here, and Cincinnati, to a lesser extent. Notably, Cincy’s head coach Pat Noonan and GM Chris Albright arrived from Philadelphia to spearhead the Knifey Lions’ revival, and will be quite familiar with the Union. If FCC can navigate a path past the New York Red Bulls in Round One, that could make them an awkward opponent for Philly.

“I just know that they can put up big numbers,” said one coach of Cincy and their prolific attacking trident of Acosta, Brenner and Brandon Vazquez. “I if they can get past the Red Bulls, and them knowing Philly really well, I think there's a potential for them to pull that upset off.”

Nashville, anchored by Willis and center back Walker Zimmerman, also got some shine, as a team well-suited for a knockout tournament – assuming they don’t lose touch with their rugged defensive identity as they did for stretches of the regular season.

“Nashville is a very interesting team in the playoffs,” said one coach. “The way they defend, I think they’re a really solid team in the West.”

In a wider philosophical sense, this year’s field seems to have us revisiting an established bit of conventional MLS wisdom – that clutch plays by talented individuals (think of Sebastian Giovinco in 2017 or Taty Castellanos last year) often trump selfless collectives (like Philly or CFM) in the elevated, win-or-else stakes of the postseason.

“It's game changers, who you can rely on showing up in the big moments,” said a coach. “Is that an old-school MLS thought, that you still need big-time players? Can you be just a really well-oiled team that is well-coached and hard to play against? I don't know. I like Montréal. I’ve seen them play a few times, saw them play twice live. They’re brave, they pose a tough matchup for a lot of teams.”

There was also some talk about the two Florida sides in this department – specifically, the extent of Inter Miami’s 180-degree turnaround since the arrival of CSO/sporting director Chris Henderson from Seattle, and the chaotic goodness that is Orlando City.

“That [Miami] team was a dumpster fire, and they finally have found some stability,” said one coach.

“Orlando, they're always kind of a wild card. They're so emotionally driven because of who Oscar Pareja\] is and their coaching staff. They're all emotions. I mean, that last game against [Columbus was nuts for a lot of different reasons, but that's who Orlando is, the emotional aspect.”