Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

FC Cincinnati: What we learned in 2024 & what comes next

24-Season-Review-CIN

Even when things were going great for FC Cincinnati this year, there was always an underlying current of chaos and… incompleteness, maybe? Things were never quite as settled as necessary for this team to build on what they accomplished in 2023, when they won one trophy and came so close to two more.

It wasn’t a bad year by any stretch. But I imagine there’s real frustration amongst the front office and staff.

Away we go:

1
A Rotating Cast of Forwards

It’s very, very hard to win MLS Cup without a top tier No. 9. Aaron Boupendza, brought in last summer, was supposed to be that guy, but Aaron Boupendza – talented as he is – was a Grade A liability off the field. He also had negative chemistry with Lucho Acosta on the field.

So general manager Chris Albright brought in Corey Baird, who’d just had a career year in Houston, as a free agent in the winter. And he scoured the transfer market to eventually bring in young Kevin Kelsy on a U22 Initiative deal, at the end of the Primary Transfer Window. Those guys were on hand for basically the whole year, in addition to holdovers Sergio Santos and former DP Yuya Kubo, who’s morphed into a utility-man during his years in the Queen City.

Nothing worked. Boupendza was disinterested, then got himself tuned up by a pro boxer outside a bar late one night, and he was gone by early August via contract termination. Baird never figured out how to fit. Santos worked hard, but he’s not a consistent MLS goalscorer. Kesley scored some bangers, but brought nothing else to the table.

When potential eight-figure moves for Germán Berterame and Josh Sargent fell through this summer, Albright had to chuck a last-minute hail mary towards Niko Gioacchini, brought in on loan from Serie A side Como. That didn’t work, either.

Most often, it fell to Kubo to lead the line. He worked hard. He pressed well. He connected play. He scored one goal in the final three months.

The situation at center forward put a cap on what the Garys were capable of this season. More than anything else, that’s why they lost to New York City FC in Round One of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.

2
Injuries Take Their Toll

Matt Miazga was probably leading the pack for Defender of the Year before busting his knee in mid-June. Veteran center back Nick Hagglund started the year nursing a muscle injury, returned in late March, played three months, and then hurt his ankle right after Miazga's season-ending injury.

Obinna Nwobodo had a groin injury early on and never quite looked like himself. DeAndre Yedlin played a lot of minutes, but faded down the stretch and was not 90-minutes fit come the postseason.

Cincy could’ve survived any/all of that. What they couldn’t survive was reigning MVP Lucho Acosta’s form taking a sharp nose-dive in mid-summer after picking up a foot injury. The little enganche was having a better season than when he won the award in 2023, when he contributed 17g/14a.

Acosta's 2024 numbers:

  • 11g/18a in 24 games before the injury.
  • 3g/1a in 8 games after the injury.

His dribble success rate plummeted. So did his chance creation numbers. The frequency of unnecessary turnovers spiked. Everything about Cincy was justifiably built around putting Lucho in a position to win games, and everything about Cincy got worse when he couldn’t.

I’m not going to call it a “season from hell” – Cincy fans know all too well what those actually look like, and 59 points ain’t it – but it was cruel in its own, brutal way.

3
Answers Found

Despite all the struggles, Cincy hit two player acquisition home runs:

  • Attacker Luca Orellano, who played both left wingback and right wingback, as a No. 10 and as a second forward, produced 10g/7a in his first MLS season, was reportedly purchased outright for a $3 million last week, and should be a key piece for the next half-decade at least. He is awesome.
  • Journeyman Yamil Asad won the starting left wingback role mid-season and made it his own down the stretch. Real duck-to-water stuff.

I loved watching them.

Five Players to Build Around
  • Lucho Acosta (AM): He said some stuff about maybe having played his last game for Cincy after the loss on Saturday, but I don’t believe that’s the case. Get him healthy, help him get happy, and he’ll be back at his Best XI level.
  • Luca Orellano (FW/WB): Orellano's best spot, I think, is as a second striker or a second playmaker in the flexible 3-4-1-2 Cincy play.
  • Yamil Asad (LWB): Plug-and-play left wingback.
  • Matt Miazga (CB): If he comes back healthy – and he’s expected to – there's no reason to think he can’t still be among the league’s best.
  • DeAndre Yedlin (RWB): Endline-to-endline coverage from the veteran.

I don’t think the Lucho thing, as I said above, is real. Maybe I’ll be wrong about that, but it struck me as a competitive, frustrated guy feeling his emotions after a disappointing loss.

Onto the other stuff:

Can they re-sign Miles Robinson, who’s got a contract option? I assume so, and if that’s the case, then he’s top three on the above list instead of off it entirely. But I’m gonna play it safe until the press release hits my inbox.

Nwobodo is a bigger question. He’s got a club option for next year, and thus far throughout his contract, he’s been a DP who can not be bought down. Is there a way for Cincy to decline his $1.44 million deal and extend him at a number that opens up another DP slot? That’d give the front office two to play with, presuming they decline Gioacchini’s option (which they are absolutely going to do). And just in general, new DP or not, I suspect that central midfield is a spot Albright will attempt to reinforce this winter.

But in truth, it’s all about finding the right DP No. 9. As a buddy of mine texted me in the middle of that draw on Saturday, “Lmao this Cincy performance is begging for a legit striker.” Yup. And I’m 1000% certain Albright, Pat Noonan et al know it.

It won’t be Berterame – I think that bridge is burned – but they were reportedly willing to pay $15 million for him, and reportedly offered something close to $20 million for Sargent. When your checkbook is that fat, it opens a lot of doors.

EDIT: Well, in between the time I wrote that and this piece got pubbed, this happened:

If Denkey is the right guy, the Garys are S-Tier contenders in 2025 from the jump.