I’m biting my nails. Are you biting yours?
With Decision Day (Oct. 19) rapidly approaching and most clubs having only seven regular-season matches left, the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs race is heating way, way up.
As teams fight to land one of the final postseason spots, let's examine why each Eastern Conference team will (and won’t) hop over the postseason line. Here's why your favorite fringe playoff team should be happy. Or sad.
For some Western Conference bubble talk, we've also got you covered.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because the Italians can still turn it on
It’s consistency, not top-end quality, that’s been the problem for Toronto FC this season.
While Federico Bernardeschi’s counting stats aren’t what you would expect of a player of his skill level, John Herdman’s decision to use him as a right-sided wingback has changed his role in the attack. Lorenzo Insigne hasn’t been regularly healthy since arriving from the other side of the Atlantic, but when he’s fit and motivated? You’d better believe opposing defenses are scared.
You can’t count Toronto out.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because their squad needs more
For as fun and scary as the Italians can be, this TFC squad needs more turnover. Realistically, this team needs at least one more starter in every line of the field before they can expect to really push for contender status. They have the fourth-worst expected goal difference, according to FBref, in the East for a reason.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because the early returns on Alexey Miranchuk are great
It’s early days, but Alexey Miranchuk looks like the real deal. The attacking midfielder has made just one start in MLS, but has already developed a strong understanding with his teammates. While Atlanta’s ceiling isn’t as high as before the summer window, it’s still lofty.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because the summer window left them with almost no margin for error
The Five Stripes have a good chance to make the postseason, but they have almost no margin for error. If Miranchuk doesn’t start turning his smooth touches into goal contributions, or if their goalkeeping woes return, they’re in real trouble.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because the defense is finally stable
The biggest issue for the Union during their brutal run of form from April to the beginning of July was their defense. But since July 6? Jim Curtin’s squad has the best defensive record in MLS, allowing just 0.5 goals per game and sitting ninth in xG allowed in that same stretch. The Philadelphia Union of old have returned.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because Tai Baribo will cool down
I mean, he has to… right? Right? Looking strictly at MLS play, Baribo has seven goals in just over 800 minutes this year. He’s been red hot as the replacement for Julián Carranza.
Baribo’s underlying numbers don’t point to a big drop coming – he’s ever-so-slightly underperforming his xG, per FBref. Still, defenses will get wise to his threat and work to shut down Philly’s biggest threat.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because no other bubble team has Christian Benteke
Benteke is, without a doubt, the most impactful attacking player on any Eastern Conference playoff bubble team. He’s tied for the Golden Boot presented by Audi lead with 17 goals, gobbles up every aerial ball and finds space in the box like so few others. You could do plenty worse than having Benteke lead you into the postseason.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because they’re too leaky
Only two teams have allowed more goals per 90 minutes this year than D.C. United: the San Jose Earthquakes and CF Montréal. With an aggressive pressing scheme backed by consistently poor goalkeeping, the ball ends up in D.C.’s net far too often for them to be a legitimate threat.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because Laurent Courtois’ control-heavy system was built for this moment
Columbus Crew coach Wilfried Nancy plays his possession-centric brand of soccer to ensure his team is always in control of the game’s tempo and field position. Laurent Courtois, a like-minded coach, has been working to instill many of the same principles in his own Montréal team.
CF Montréal could grow more comfortable with those principles as they gain more reps, leading to just enough points for them to hop above the line.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because they’re not truly good at any one thing
CF Montréal are a bottom-third team in terms of xG per 90 minutes and they’re a bottom-two team in xG allowed per 90 minutes, according to FBref. They don’t have any real stars. They’re not a threat to make the playoffs.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because they’re straight-up better now than they were to start the year
Luca Langoni makes this team better. Alhassan Yusuf makes this team better. AljaĹľ IvaÄŤiÄŤ makes this team better. When their best pieces are on the field together, the Revs are so much closer to being the threat out East that many of my colleagues pegged them as to start the year.
Now there’s actual cover in midfield and threat on the wings! Watch out for New England, folks. Their summer window could propel them into the postseason.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because there’s not enough time for the new guys to settle in
I credit New England for chopping and changing things this summer – signings were desperately needed. But Yusuf is yet to debut. Langoni is yet to start. The backline isn’t settled. Is there enough time for this team to gel before Decision Day? It certainly won’t be easy to climb the standings with so much new blood.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because they have a bunch of extra touches to allocate
Before his recent departure, Xherdan Shaqiri was eating 55.9 touches per 90 for the Chicago Fire, according to FBref’s data. He scored a piddling 0.24 goals and snagged 0.12 assists per 90 minutes with those touches. Now his on-ball actions can go to a combination of Maren Haile-Selassie and Hugo Cuypers. Sounds like an improvement to me.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because they still don’t have a central playmaker
I’m not too far past the days of waiting for Brian Gutiérrez to turn into an impactful No. 10. From where I sit, the 21-year-old hasn’t taken that next step.
Sure, dancing around Shaqiri wasn’t optimal for the young American. But without regular line-splitting passes from Gutiérrez in the center, Chicago’s attack is so easy to funnel into the wide areas. A predictable attack is usually a struggling one.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because it’s not too late to lean into what’s worked before
There’s too much talent at B.J. Callaghan’s disposal for Nashville to be as poor as they’ve been for the rest of this year. Hany Mukhtar is still a threat in the open field and there’s high-quality talent in the backline.
Nashville have found joy in a sit-deep-and-counter approach in the past. They can resist that old classic to at least partially restore their fortunes – it’ll be like riding a bike.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because this team is broken
Nashville SC haven’t earned a point in an MLS game since June 22. They haven’t won a game in any of their last 10 matches played in all competitions. Mukhtar’s numbers are way down. There’s no real threat from the wide areas or progression from central midfield. Oh, and they allow more xG per 90 minutes than all but five other teams in the league, according to FBref. This team is lost.
