Austin FC’s front office did nothing last winter to make anyone think the team on the field would be appreciably better in 2024 than they had been in 2023. And so here we are, staring at Decision Day, with the Verde & Black on 39 points. One year after they’d finished with… 39 points.
Their goal differential is slightly worse, while their place in the standings is slightly better. Reinforcements did eventually arrive mid-season, but none of the sort that could just grab the whole organization by the scruff of the neck and turn it all around, Nico Lodeiro-in-Seattle, 2016-style.
So with three missed Audi MLS Cup Playoffs in four seasons in charge, head coach Josh Wolff paid with his job. That’s where we’ll start:
Rodolfo Borrell arrived in the summer of 2023 and there was no little surprise around the league when the ex-Barcelona/Liverpool/Man City academy guy – who is a rookie in the CSO role with Austin – elected to keep Wolff on. Usually a new CSO means an organizational overhaul, including and especially the head coach.
Instead, Wolff was given one last shot to show that 2022 wasn’t a flukey outlier brought about by unsustainably hot finishing, and, well: 39 points. Here we are.
I don’t think this is entirely Wolff’s fault. He threw a lot of stuff at the wall in terms of formations, tactics, midfield balance, and overall fit, and I think you could credibly argue he did well to keep this particular collection of players in the playoff race as long as he did. Especially with star No. 10 Sebastián Driussi being outright bad this season.
But the trendline was revealing: Austin’s xG differential per 90 in 2022 was -0.05. In 2023 it was -0.22. This year -0.55.
The coach had clearly run out of answers, and his team was clearly broken at a very fundamental level.
Driussi was MVP-caliber two years ago. This year he’s managed 6g/2a in about 2200 minutes, and some of the worst body language this side of Lorenzo Insigne. A sizable (or at least loud) chunk of the fanbase appears to be over it.
His buddy, Emiliano Rigoni, was bought out in the spring. That opened the way for another DP winger, Osman Bukari, who’s scored just one goal in his 620 minutes.
Gyasi Zardes and Diego Rubio were supposed to share the No. 9 job. Rubio has four goals, and Gyasi has three.
Alex Ring was… fine, I guess. The veteran center backs mostly weren’t.
Of the guys who were supposed to be the match-winners, only goalkeeper Brad Stuver (who has had, I think, his best overall season) performed at or above expectations.
Bukari – the splashy signing – was one of three additions made this summer, with center back Oleksandr Svatok and right back Mikkel Desler the others. Those two have been integrated a little more slowly than Bukari, who’s started in eight of his nine appearances.
It wasn’t the window of a team desperately trying to acquire talent in order to keep their heads above water in the playoff race (compare Austin’s summer to St. Louis CITY's. See?). Rather, it seems Borrell was content to let the current group have one more crack at it, then use the gigantic amount of roster and cap flexibility he’ll have this winter to dive fully into a reboot.
- Bukari (W): You don’t spend $7 million on a winger to not build around him.
- Desler (RB): Has shown some good moments in 1v1 defense, though his distribution’s got me a little worried.
- Svatok (CB): Hasn’t looked good so far, but he’s Borrell’s signing, so he’ll get plenty of chances.
- Stuver (GK): Still one of the very best in MLS.
- Owen Wolff (CM): He’s underrated in the fanbase. Borrell was right when he called Wolff “one of the young players with the most potential in the country.”
The patience Borrell’s shown the past 18 months was admirable in a lot of ways. Now, though, he’s got a full plate and it’s time to cook.
Job No. 1: Find a new head coach to replace the elder Wolff. I imagine Borrell’s already got somebody in mind, given he’s had 18 months to ponder a post-Wolff future. Could he lure Dome Torrent (they overlapped at both Barcelona and Man City) away from Atlético San Luis? Would Xavi, who’s currently out of a job, be interested in the green team?
Or is he going to go outside of the Barcelona/CFG family? I’m not expecting that – administrators from the Pep tree usually look for coaches from the Pep tree because they want the Pep game model to be second nature. Until proven otherwise, I’m going to assume that’s Rodo’s plan.
Job No. 2: Figure out who’s coming back. Start declining team options and you get up past $3.5 million of budget room real quick. That represents ample space to rebuild most of the guts of the roster.
Job No. 3: Figure out the buyout situation. I don’t think it’ll be Driussi – he’s reportedly on $6.7m, which is too freaking huge. That leaves veterans like Zardes or Julio Cascante, both entering the final guaranteed year or their respective deals, or Leo Väisänen, who’s got two years left but has been a profound disappointment thus far, as the most obvious buy-out candidates.
Job No. 4: Make use of the U22 Initiative slots. Right now there’s only one on the roster (oft-injured backup fullback Žan Kolmanič), but there is room for either two or three more, depending on how many DPs Austin decide to go with.
As I said, it’s a full plate, and I would expect Austin to be one of the handful of busiest teams in MLS this winter. If they’re not, then it’s probably time to worry.
