Your Wednesday Kickoff: Which Wild Card team can play spoiler?

What you need to know

Atlanta United advance on penalties

The first Wild Card match of the postseason went to Atlanta United after the Five Stripes won 5-4 on penalties. Montréal fought back from a 2-0 deficit to send it to a shootout, but came up just short of the comeback.

Portland host Vancouver tonight in Wild Card

Kickoff is set for 10:30 pm ET. You can watch for free on Apple TV. The winner faces LAFC in Round One.

Chicago, St. Louis announce roster decisions

Chicago Fire FC and St. Louis CITY SC announced their end-of-year roster moves yesterday. Take a look at the decisions here.

The (Wild Card) Recap

Atlanta United barely moved on, but they’re moving on. Let’s talk it out.

CF MONTRÉAL - 2 (4) | ATLANTA UNITED - 2 (5)

Josef Martínez (63', 89' PK) | B. Lennon (29'), S. Gregersen (44')

The Five Stripes, completely against the run of play, suddenly strung together a 45-pass (!) sequence that ended with Brooks Lennon heading home a stellar Pedro Amador cross. They doubled that lead a few moments later to head into halftime up 2-0. But Montréal fought back and eventually caught a break. A misplayed cross bounced right back to Josef Martínez inside the 18 and folks in Atlanta were well aware of how that turns out.

Atlanta still almost saw it through though. But a foul from Lennon inches inside the box in the dying minutes of the game led to a Montréal penalty. Josef converted and the game went immediately to penalties. Despite blowing the lead, Atlanta survived and moved on in the shootout.

None of it really went to plan for Atlanta, who were on the back foot for most of the game and then failed to hold onto the lead they had fallen into. But when you’re on the road in a must-win game for the second time in three days, you don’t really care how you get a win. They’ll obviously need to be much, much sharper to take down Miami. But for now, they can celebrate another big win.

Montréal made a heckuva push at the end of the season. Including last night’s draw over 90 minutes, they lost just once in their final eight games. I’m not sure that makes Laurent Courtois’ first year in charge a success, but at least they have some positive momentum heading into 2025.

Is this where the dark horse run begins?

Let’s Wild Card. Again.

Here’s what to keep an eye on tonight.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

It ain’t going well for Vancouver

Portland host Vancouver tonight despite Vancouver being the higher seed. That’s just kind of the way things are going for the Whitecaps over the last month. The Whitecaps haven’t won an MLS game since Sept. 14. Only six teams have had a worse points-per-game record since Leagues Cup than the ‘Caps. It is…not good company. Over a 10-game stretch, Vancouver have been on a better pace than Toronto, Sporting KC, San Jose, New England, New York and Chicago. Only one of those teams made the playoffs and, well, they’re probably in a lot of trouble too.

What’s especially frustrating about that run of form for the Whitecaps is it coincides with the arrival of their newest DP Stuart Armstrong. Now, that’s not to say it’s Armstrong’s fault. But if Vancouver were going to turn into a team that can really compete with the best teams in the league, they need Armstrong to hit immediately. Instead, he’s only played 123 minutes. In the one game he started, he only played 58 minutes and Vancouver lost 1-0 to Minnesota.

There’s just not a ton of reason to believe in the Whitecaps right now. We know there’s a good team buried in there somewhere. Even if we haven’t seen them in a while. They can at least take solace in the idea this lull is due in part to short-term injuries to Brian White and Ryan Gauld, but those two haven’t missed enough team for this team to earn much sympathy for their run of form down the stretch.

This is MLS though. Weird things happen. And, from my view, I would qualify a road win against this Portland side as a very weird thing.

Portland Timbers

Portland are good enough to make a run

I’ve been banging this drum for a while, and I’m not going to shy away from it now. The Timbers are the most intriguing dark horse pick in the league. You could maybe talk me into Minnesota as a lower seed that has a lot going for it too, but for me, the Timbers have the combination of attacking firepower and underlying numbers I can’t stay away from.

I’ve been talking about it so much over the last few weeks I’m not even sure I need to hammer it home again. We can bullet point some facts:

Evander, Felipe Mora and Jonathan Rodríguez have combined for 45 goals and 32 assists this season.
Supporting cast members Antony and Santiago Moreno have added 12 goals and 20 assists of their own.
Per American Soccer Analysis, the Timbers have been third in the league in expected goals allowed since the midway point of the season.

They have as much firepower as anyone in the league. An MVP-caliber No. 10 in Evander. AND, most importantly, they’ve actually been doing an impressive job of limiting their opponents’ chances despite the narrative around their defense. That’s the kind of team that can easily make it through the Wild Card and then give a top seed absolute hell in Round One.

That’s not to say they’ll beat LAFC. That matchup isn’t great for them…or anyone. But I’m simply not ready to count this group out. We’ll see if they make me look smart tonight.

Other things

Austin FC sign Wolff to contract extension: Austin FC have signed homegrown midfielder Owen Wolff to a contract extension through 2027 with an option for 2028. The US youth international has made 86 appearances for Austin since debuting in 2021, tallying 3g/8a during that span.

Inter Miami CF's Messi named MLS Player of the Month: At the tail end of a historic season, Inter Miami CF superstar Lionel Messi has added MLS Player of the Month honors for October 2024 to his lengthy list of accolades. The Argentine was unstoppable over the Herons' three matches this month, racking up six goal contributions (5g/1a), tied for the MLS lead over that span.