USA defeat Iran to qualify for Round of 16
The US men's national team are through to the Round of 16 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, punching their ticket with a 1-0 victory over Iran to close out Group B play on Tuesday, delivered by a game-winner from Christian Pulisic. With the result, the USMNT finished second in Group B with five points from three matches following opening draws with Wales and England. They'll now move on to face Group A winners Netherlands on Saturday (10 am ET | FOX, Telemundo).
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I want to take a moment and look at the attacking players who maybe should have put up better numbers this season. I think the unluckiest of us should be appreciated too – or at least recognized as candidates to take a step forward next season.
Because, in general, players regress to the mean. Basically, if they’re finding or creating enough quality chances, those chances will turn into goals on a long enough timeline. And we’re getting pretty good at measuring the quality of chances. Statistics like expected goals and expected assists essentially tell us how often a chance will turn into a goal. The models that tell us how often a chance will turn into a goal are getting more powerful and more predictive as more data becomes available.
In most cases, the idea of “finishing” isn’t as important as finding chances that have a high percentage of leading to goals. Very few players are either so good or so bad at turning chances into goals that they break the model entirely. So, if we here at The Daily Kickoff believe most MLS players don’t break the model, we can believe these guys might come good sooner rather than later. If they're given more time to prove it anyway.
4.76 goals below his expected goals total
Araujo came to Atlanta midway through 2021 and instantly looked the part of a high-priced DP that would take the league by storm. He scored four goals and delivered four assists in 13 starts during his first half-season. In 26 starts this season he…scored four times and delivered six assists. Uh oh.
That’s despite taking the second-most shots of any player in the league. He accumulated so many chances with so little payoff that he finished with nearly five goals less than what his expected-goals numbers suggested a player would normally pick up. That led the league.
I’m like 90% sure I predicted Araujo would finish with MVP votes before the beginning of 2022. Despite his clear talent, that prediction didn’t quite come to fruition. Part of that is down to bad luck, but we should also note no one took worse shots than Araujo, who led the league in shots from outside the box. Araujo routinely chose quantity of chance over quality. In this case, it kind of feels like he forced bad luck on himself.
I guess we should also note even if he had finished with a goal total on par with his expected goals total, he would have ended with nine goals and six assists. That’s the same exact output as (future Atlanta teammate?) Derrick Etienne Jr. Only one of those players is one of the most expensive DPs in MLS history. Araujo had as disappointing a year as he had an unlucky year. But maybe with a refresher on shot selection, he can turn that talent and high volume of chances into a breakout 2023.
4.17 goals below his expected goals total
Hey, remember how I said very few players are so good or bad at finishing they escape regressing to their expected goals numbers? If anyone’s eye test suggested they might just be bad at finishing, it’s Cabral’s. We’re talking regular highlight-worthy misses here. I mean, Araujo took 98 shots this year compared to Cabral’s 35 and Cabral still nearly matched Araujo’s underperformance. The chances he missed were massive.
The young DP scored just one time in 2022 after a 2021 season that saw him find the net five times. Even if he had finished at a rate resembling his chances, he would have matched his 2021 output. That’s not ideal from a player taking up one of your three DP spots. However, he is just 23 years old. There’s still time for him to gain a little more confidence in front of goal and turn his ability to find high-quality chances into an ability to actually produce. Or maybe he just ends up as a classic “Man, if he had put it all together” guy. It probably depends on whether LA has any patience left for him.
3.9 goals below his expected goals total
Red Bulls fans are probably already keenly aware of this one. Figuring out what to do at striker has been a primary problem in New York for a while. In large part because Klimala sure looks like he should be scoring. And the numbers suggest he should be scoring. And then he just…doesn’t score.
Klimala led the league in this same category last season. It seems fair to wonder if he might just be broken in a way that even goes beyond Cabral and Araujo’s issues. Or maybe he’s just built up two years of underperformance before regressing to the mean so hard in 2023 he becomes an MVP candidate?
3.86 goals created below his expected assist total
Quintero is the unluckiest chance creator in MLS for 2022. In a world where his teammates are a little luckier, he could have been looking at an eight-goal, seven-assist season. Did I mention he’s a free agent? The lesson as always is someone should really pick up Darwin Quintero.
Ecuador out of World Cup after loss to Senegal in Group A finale: After a promising start to the tournament, Ecuador's World Cup is suddenly over following Tuesday's heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Senegal in their Group A finale. With four points from their first two matches, La Tri only needed a draw to reach the Round of 16. But things didn't go according to plan, partially due to the forced absence of Sebastián Méndez. The LAFC midfielder – a key presence in their previous games – was suspended due to yellow card accumulation.
Austin FC sign forward Ocampo-Chávez after Waivers selection: Austin FC have signed forward Alfonso Ocampo-Chávez after claiming him from the MLS End-of-Year Waivers list. The 20-year-old joins Austin through the 2023 season with club options for 2024 and 2025. The former Seattle Sounders FC attacker will maintain his homegrown player designation with the Verde & Black. He will occupy a spot on the club’s supplemental roster.
Orlando City transfer forward Alvarado to Ecuador's LDU Quito: LDU Quito have exercised their purchase option on Orlando City SC forward Alexander Alvarado after he spent this past season on loan at the Ecuadorian top-flight side. The 23-year-old Ecuadorian didn’t score or assist in 12 games (two starts) for the Lions, but registered 14g/8a in 35 games across all competitions for LDU Quito. Alvarado originally joined Orlando in 2020.
- The USMNT showed spirit in their World Cup breakthrough versus Iran.
- Bruce Arena (!!) has your USMNT player ratings.
- Christian Pulisic says I’ll “be ready” for USA vs. Netherlands World Cup game.
- President Joe Biden reacted to the USMNT's World Cup victory.
- Matt Doyle has three takeaways as the USMNT survived against Iran.
- Take a closer look at the USMNT’s next opponent.
Good luck out there. You should keep going.
