Your Saturday Kickoff: Today's the day! LA Galaxy, Red Bulls meet in MLS Cup

What you need to know

MLS Cup

Have you heard? LA Galaxy host New York Red Bulls today at 4 pm ET (Apple TV - Free; FOX, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS). MLS Cup 2024 presented by Audi is on the line. Coverage begins on MLS Season Pass at 2:30 pm ET.

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Who's gonna win this thing?

“Cagey”

Unless LA find a breakthrough early, my gut call is this plays out a lot like both conference finals. New York will likely press from the jump to see just how uncomfortable they can make a Riqui Puig-less Galaxy side in the build-up. New York will be fine putting numbers behind the ball when needed. And anytime they get on the ball, they’ll go as direct as possible. They aren’t going to change the magic formula now unless whatever ghost that visited Chris Armas before the 2018 Eastern Conference Final showed up in Sandro Schwarz’s room last night.

On the other side, the Galaxy will have to switch things up. With no Puig and Marco Reus dealing with injury, Diego Fagúndez seems to be the likely fill-in starter today. The Galaxy have done just fine with Fagúndez in the starting lineup this year. In 19 starts, they’ve gone 12W-2L-5D. It’s not like they’re being forced to start Tom Bogert in midfield. Still, Fagúndez isn’t Puig. And he’s only spent a few games filling in directly for Puig. Those games were months ago now.

So, yeah, we don’t really have any idea how LA might approach life without Puig. But you have to wonder if it will result in them taking a more conservative outlook on this game. There’s a chance they take a similar route to Orlando City and force New York to be on the ball a little more often. This is a team that finished third in average possession this season, but it might be a necessary adjustment without Puig.

Either way, when LA do have the ball, New York will be thrilled to make LA’s experience as miserable as possible. When you’re wondering why this game feels choppy, just remember Red Bulls fullback John Tolkin already laid out the game plan on Thursday.

“We respect them. But we want to kick the s–-t out of them.”

One shining moment

All that kicking and all of the adjustments LA will have to make tend to suggest this might come down to one moment. Whether that’s Joseph Paintsil or Gabriel Pec winning a penalty, Andrés Reyes getting on the end of a set piece from Tolkin, or an instance of brilliance from Club Cult Hero To Be Named Later, these teams are going to have to find a way to win ugly. If this doesn’t go to penalties, 1-0 feels like the most likely option. You could talk me into 2-1, but anything more than that will be powered solely by the MLS Chaos Machine and nothing else.

Just for fun, here are the 10 most likely options on how that one goal in a 1-0 result goes down:

Gabriel Pec moment that causes you to point and whoop unintelligibly at the TV
Red Bulls capitalize on a catastrophic giveaway
Joseph Paintsil and/or Dejan Joveljic do a thing
The Galaxy have one moment of gorgeous soccer
Red Bulls set piece goal
Red Bulls counter that rips LA apart thanks to Emil Forsberg and bad rest defense from LA
Random stunner from outside the box via a guy you honestly forgot would be out there today
Cluster in front of goal goal
Goofy penalty
Classic MLS goof-up that will live on in league lore and the club lore of both teams forever

I think that about covers it. Then again, it’s MLS. You never truly know.

So, who gets it done?

The biggest reason to think it’s LA, as always, is they’re at home. You don’t need to overthink these things in MLS most of the time. But this Red Bulls team seems to have The Magic. There’s some level of predestination going on here. They sure seem like a team capable of breaking a curse. For me, there’s no clear favorite.

But no one ever changed the world sitting on the fence. The Galaxy, even without Puig, have too many match-winners left on the pitch to bet against. It may not be pretty, but one of Pec, Paintsil or Joveljic should be able to get the job done in the end. I think LA win on 55% of timelines. I’ll pick the Galaxy (and secretly feel a bit of joy if the New Jersey Cinderella story has a happy ending).

Other Things

LA Galaxy, MLS unveil 2024 MLS Cup Legacy Project: As hosts of MLS Cup 2024 presented by Audi, the LA Galaxy have joined forces with MLS in the 2024 MLS Cup Legacy Project, unveiling a refurbished safe space for kids to play after school hours at the East Side Riders Bike Club community center in Huntington Park.

Atlanta United transfer Sosa to Racing Club: Atlanta United have transferred midfielder Santiago Sosa to Racing Club of the Argentine Primera Division for an undisclosed fee. The 25-year-old Argentine spent four years with Atlanta (2021-24) upon arriving from River Plate in his home country. He produced 1g/1a in 63 matches and had a U22 Initiative roster tag.

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