Dimers Betting Tips

MLS Matchday 38: Best Bets and Predictions for Decision Day

Saturdays don’t get much more super than this. It’s Decision Day, the final matchday of the MLS season with 28 teams in action across 14 games on Saturday night. With such a healthy slate of games, our betting partners at Dimers.com are coming to the party with three must-bet plays that you should be making, thanks to their predictive analytics model.

Toronto vs. Orlando City, Saturday October 21, 6:00 PM ET

BET: Orlando moneyline (-105)

With second place in the Eastern Conference well in Orlando City’s keeping regardless of the result on Saturday night, some fans may be excused for thinking that they’ll put the cue in the rack against a lowly ranked Toronto team that sit at the foot of the MLS table with a league-low 22 points this season, but the Dimers MLS prediction model begs to differ, seeing significant value on the Lions to head into the MLS Cup playoffs in good form.

Even though technically there’s not a whole lot to gain for Orlando with all three points in this one, they will be chasing some history - just three goals away from the all-time MLS single-season record for goals scored. This is a team that has not lost to Toronto since 2019 in seven previous encounters and have great odds at -105 with Dimers setting City’s win probability at 53%.

Nashville vs. NY Red Bulls, Saturday October 21, 6:00 PM ET

BET: Under 2.5 Goals (+114)

In a game with two teams with a lot to play for, Nashville will host an in-form NY Red Bulls team who will be hoping for a little luck to go their way to capture a wild card berth. Nashville with a win could avoid a matchup with Orlando in the first round of the playoffs, and will be counting on their superior defense, currently ranked first in the league for fewest goals allowed to opponents per game, to stifle the Red Bulls who will be trying to overcome their issues in the front third where they rank 26th for goals scored. With so much at stake, expect this to be a cagey affair with goals at a premium, with the Dimers MLS predictor siding with the Under 2.5 Goals market as the play here with a 54% probability.

St. Louis CITY vs. Seattle Sounders, Saturday October 21, 9:00 PM ET

BET: St. Louis moneyline (+135) 

What a year it has been for the new boys. St. Louis CITY entered their inaugural season with little expectation but have emerged as one of the legitimate MLS Cup contenders with the best record in the Western Conference.

They’ll be at home on Saturday night, facing a Seattle Sounders squad that is still jostling for position, able to leapfrog LAFC into second spot in the West with a win. This is the exact type of tune up both teams will be looking for ahead of a tilt at the poseason, but it’s a game that the Dimers model sees the home team triumphing in, detecting a 3% edge on the sportsbook odds of +135. With just three losses at CITYPARK all season, the plus money odds are hard to resist for the record-breaking expansion team.