There just aren’t many teams that could’ve survived:
- Significant injuries to two of their three DPs.
- Significant injuries to/time missed by all four of their best central midfielders.
- Zero minutes from their U22s.
- A bit of regression from their star goalkeeper.
- Catastrophic regression from last year’s best center back, and from last year’s breakout attacker.
Any two of those five and I’d tell you to suck it up. Any three and I’d express some sympathy. Any four, and you’ve got a rock-solid excuse for an underwhelming year.
FC Dallas went 5-for-5, so of course they missed the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
In we go:
Now-former head coach Nico Estévez was pretty clearly aiming to build this year’s team into a ball-dominant, two-way, possession-play juggernaut, with the central midfield duo of Asier Illarramendi and Paxton Pomykal acting as the foundation, along with Jesús Ferreira and one of the other attackers underneath new record signing Petar Musa, who’d plow a lone furrow up top.
Musa kept his end of the bargain with 15g/3a in 29 appearances entering Decision Day, but everyone else got banged up. Illarramendi has managed about 1,900 minutes, while Ferreira’s been on the field for a touch over 1,300. Pomykal, of course, was injured on Matchday 1. He’s played six minutes all year.
There was no salvaging the game model with the core pieces so limited, and when it was clear about halfway through the season that Estévez had no plan B, the club parted ways with him. Dallas had a record of 3W-8L-5D at the time, which… yeah, not quite Wooden Spoon bad. But pretty damn far from where expectations had been set.
It fell to assistant Peter Luccin to step into Estévez's shoes. The first thing he did was switch his team’s principles from positional play to a more aggressive, back-to-front, free-flowing style. He won some fans in the process, including yours truly, and folks like Steve Davis, who’s been covering this team from inside the stadium for as long as los Toros Tejanos existed.
Here’s a bit from Steve’s excellent newsletter:
Luccin was nothing short of inspirational in his initial recovery efforts. And the numbers still look pretty good: points per game and goal scoring increased dramatically. He got more from most of the important roster pieces. (Not all of them, but enough of them.) He enlivened the attack, which made home games more interesting, at least.
Dallas, under Luccin, scrapped their way into the playoff picture, and as September started, they’d given themselves a real chance.
Since then, however, things have been bad. Dallas’s defensive issues have been myriad and sundry as they’ve won just once in their last six, falling well off the pace and putting the conventional wisdom of Luccin being the no-brainer choice to be named permanent head coach into question.
In his 20 matches in charge, FCD have picked up 1.2 points per game. They’ve been more fun to watch, and they’ve scored more, but they’ve also hemorrhaged goals. To borrow a line from another buddy of mine who covers the team, “Peter just opened up the team to go forward, but that exposed all the defensive issues Nico knew were there.”
That’s hung goalkeeper Maarten Paes out to dry time and again. After two outstanding years between the sticks, he’s dropped a level this season.
I still think Luccin will get the job, and I remain optimistic that he’ll be a good MLS manager. But this autumn death spiral should at least make the front office and ownership take time to reassess and be certain of their decision.
There was, what, maybe a 10% chance Illarramendi and Pomykal could play 4,000 minutes combined?
Ferreira’s injury-plagued season was bad luck, but they knew Alan Velasco was gonna be out until late summer, and didn’t really seem to account for that – U22 signing Enes Sali is a fun, outside-the-box swing, but he’s just 18. Hitting on the Logan Farrington SuperDraft pick spared some blushes, but not enough to get the team to the postseason.
Most damning is that they didn’t really do anything to shore up central defense in either window, so when Nkosi Tafari just wasn’t up for it this year (I can’t explain why), there weren’t any playoff-caliber starters in that group.
Estévez paid with his job and Luccin might be next, but honestly, CSO André Zanotta’s gotta put his hand up here. This season’s disappointment belongs to him more than anyone else.
- Petar Musa (FW): A no-frills, traditional No. 9.
- Jesús Ferreira (FW/AM): Can play either next to Musa in a pair or underneath him in a 3-4-2-1.
- Alan Velasco (AM/W): Has been ok since his return, and is a natural in either the 3-4-2-1 or as a true 10 in a 3-4-1-2.
- Logan Farrington (FW): Long-term I think he’s a 9, but at the moment he’s best as an attacking sub who adds value in any spot he plays.
- Patrickson Delgado (CM): A true bright spot – they’ve got to bring him back on a permanent deal.
Do they get offers they can’t – or at least shouldn’t – refuse for Ferreira and/or Velasco this winter? How that plays out will determine a lot about what direction this roster goes in the half-decade to come. Personally, I’d aim to keep both guys and build around that three-headed potential monster of an attack with the two of them and Musa (as well as Farrington and the disappointing-in-2024-but-still-talented-as-hell Bernard Kamungo in reserve), but the players themselves may not feel great about that outcome.
Even if Dallas do all the right things up top, however, it won’t matter much if they’re not able to fix the defense in front of Paes (who I’d expect to bounce back next year). Part of this will be on the coach, whether it’s Luccin or someone else. But most of it is on Zanotta, who’s got to be clear-eyed and aggressive about that backline and defensive midfield.
I don’t think it’s a full-on teardown job, but major surgery is necessary. And it’s the CSO’s job to do it.
